The Economist [2007-02-24]
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| 2007-02-24 22:48 | perskaitė: 641
The Economist [2007-02-24]
Idomus straipsnis, idejau todel, kad speju ne visi turi priejima prie sito zurnalo.
Switching engines
Feb 22nd 2007
From The Economist print edition
Global
Idomus straipsnis, idejau todel, kad speju ne visi turi priejima prie sito zurnalo.
Switching engines
Feb 22nd 2007
From The Economist print edition
Global economic growth has become less dependent on American spending
IN RECENT years the American economic locomotive has pulled along the rest of the world, while frugal
firms and households elsewhere have preferred to save not spend. So, at least, goes the popular wisdom.
Signs that America's boom may be fading have therefore caused concern around the globe. Typically in
the past, when America's economy has weakened, the rest of the world soon flagged. But this time—so
far, anyway—looks different. The rest of the globe has speeded up even as the American engine has lost
steam.
The figures are striking. The annual rate of growth of America's real domestic demand dropped from
4.4% in 2004 to only 1.9% in the second half of last year. The main culprit was the sickly housing
market: although consumer spending has held up better than expected, the construction of homes has
collapsed. So is the rest of the world also wobbling? On the contrary, many other economies have put on
a spurt. Japan's GDP grew by 4.8% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, mainly thanks to stronger
domestic demand. Granted, Japan's GDP figures are notoriously erratic, and this jump follows a poor
third quarter. Even so, it was much stronger than expected and gave the Bank of Japan the confidence at
last to raise interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point (see article). Equally surprising was
the euro area's annualised growth of 3.6%. GDP per person is now growing faster in the euro area than it
is in America. Domestic demand is also booming in emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and
Russia.
All of this is helping America to sell more abroad. In the year to the fourth quarter, its merchandise
exports rose by 15% in value, their fastest pace since 1988. By contrast, import growth slowed to only
4%. In 2006 as a whole, America's sales to China rose by a third, almost twice as fast as its (admittedly
larger) imports from that country. Last year was the first since 1997 in which America's exports rose
faster than its imports. America's trade deficit is still huge, but it began to narrow at the end of last year,
amounting to 5.3% of GDP in the three months to December, down from 6.1% in the same period of
2005. Indeed, by the fourth quarter net trade with foreigners added to America's GDP growth rather than
pulling it down.
A reason to be cheerful
The idea that the world economy was being pushed along in an American supermarket trolley was always
an exaggeration: the $500 billion increase in America's current-account deficit over the past five years
may seem huge, but it is equivalent to an annual increase of only 0.2% of global GDP. The difference
now is that the rest of the world is doing more of the carrying.
Of course, countries like Japan, Germany and China still run large trade surpluses, which means they are
producing more than they buy. But it is the change in a country's surplus, not its absolute size, which
adds to its growth. For example, China's current-account surplus hit a new record of around 8% of GDP
last year. But according to Goldman Sachs, the increase in China's net exports accounted for 2.2
percentage points of the country's 11% GDP growth last year, down from 2.7 points in 2005. The
investment bank thinks this contribution will shrink to 1.6 points this year. Most of China's growth comes
not from exports but from domestic demand—and consumption is stronger than the official figures
suggest (see article).
These are early days, so don't get carried away. The real test of the rest of the world's stamina will come
over the next year, as the negative wealth effects of falling home prices start to weigh on American
consumer spending. But also take some confidence from the evidence thus far: the world economy may
be able to cope without American shoppers.
P.S. Jei bus norinciu galiu ir daugiau ideti straipsniu