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„Naftos turim – tiesiog gręžti reikės giliau“

zhaltis | 2006-09-24 | Rinkos aktualijos | perskaitė: 9222
„Naftos turim – tiesiog gręžti reikės giliau“ „Naftos turim – tiesiog gręžti reikės giliau“ „Vis dažniau girdite linksniuojant „Peak Oil“ (teorija, teigianti, kad netolimoje ateityje naf

„Naftos turim – tiesiog gręžti reikės giliau“

„Vis dažniau girdite linksniuojant „Peak Oil“ (teorija, teigianti, kad netolimoje ateityje naftos pasiūla nebesugebės patenkinti augančios paklausos: grėsmingai didėjantys Kinijos, Indijos apetitai, o ir likusio pasaulio vartotojai nėra linkę keisti savo įpročių, taigi naftos kainos judės vienareikšmiškai aukštyn) frazę? Nusiraminkite, persėsti už vandeniliu ar kitomis daržovėmis varomo automobilio vairo nereikės - jau dabar galite tai pamiršti: sėkmingi tyrimai Meksikos įlankoje pagelbės šią teoriją dar bent kelis dešimtmečius laikyti alternatyvia“, - rugsėjo penktąją paskelbė Chevron, Devon Energy ir Norvegijos Statoil kompanijos.‘

(Ribinė naftos kreivė, pateikta M. King Hubbert‘o 1956 metais)



Žinoma, vieno didelio telkinio atradimas (net jeigu jį galime lyginti su 1968 metų didžiąja naftos sankaupa Prudhoe įlankoje), kad ir padidinsiančio Amerikos naftos atsargas 50% , nebūtų labai reikšmingas įvykis pasaulinėje rinkoje, tai net nepadėtų Amerikai tapti energetiškai nepriklausoma, kuomet naftos gavyba pradės suktis maksimaliomis apsukomis netolimoje - 4-5 metų ateityje. Tačiau galimybė išgauti naftą ekstremaliomis sąlygomis: gylis, temperatūra, spaudimas - ką šį mėnesį jau pademonstraco Chevron, ženkliai padidins eksploatuotinų naftos telkinių potencialą ir ilgam leis pamiršti Peak Oil scenarijų. Jau vien Meksikos įlankoje yra apie tuziną didelių naftos telkinių, kurių eksploatuoti neapsimokėjo ar nebuvo įmanoma dėl techninių priežasčių: dabar tai jau praeitis. O ir kiti telkiniai, esantys labai giliai po vandenyno dugnu, įskaitant ir Šiaurės jūrą, Nilo deltą, Brazilijos pakrantes taps prieinami. Analitikai priduria, kad vakarinė Afrika yra turtinga giliųjų naftos telkinių, kurių anksčiau nebuvo įmanoma pasiekti.

Rekordinio gylio naftos telkinys, kurį pavyko pasiekti Chevron darbininkams yra net 5 mylių gylyje, kurių penktadalį sudaro Meksikos įlankos vandenys. Nors giluminės naftos išgavimo pionieriams užmojis „gręžti giliau“ itin brangiai atsieina: tinkama įranga, bei terminalų statyba bendrovėms atsieina šimtus tūkstančių dolerių per dieną, ekspertai teigia, kad tokių telkinių ekploatavimas bus pelningas kainai esant virš 40-45 dolerių už barelį.

Sparčiai tobulėjantis technikos lygis Kembridžo energetinių tyrinėjimų specialistus įgalina prognozuoti, kad pasaulinės eksploatuotinos naftos ir gamtinių dujų atsargos gali išaugti net 25% 2015 metais.

Pastaruoju metu naftos kaina tirpo, tarsi plaukdama „kirviu žemyn“. Vasarą vartotojai buvo priversti mokėti „premiją“ dėl galimų trikdžių, kuriuos galėjo sukelti tiek sezoniniai uraganai, tiek neramumai ir įtempta situacija vidurio-rytų Azijoje. Tiek vienam, tiek kitam pavojui sumažėjus, nafta pradėjo pigti.
Nuo arabijos šeichų, automobilių bei lėktuvų kompanijų iki eilinio vartotojo - kiekvieną neramina klausimas: kur gi sutiksime naftos kainos dugną? Spėjimų vėl gi daugybė. Yra pateikiami trys pagrindiniai scenarijai:

Sprogimas: Amerikai pavyksta įkalbėti JT imtis griežtų sankcijų prieš Iraną. Iranas, savo ruožtu, atsako laikinu naftos eksporto nutraukimu. Venesuela apkarpo ir savo eksportą. Nafta šturmuoja 100$ ir visi draugiškai persėdame ant dviračių. J

Aukso viduriukas: Amerikos ekonomika sulėtėja, tačiau ekonominė fazė nesikeičia – recesija neprasideda. Kinijos augimas taip pat aprimsta, tačiau padėtis nėra dramatiška. Kainos svyruoja [60;70] $ intervale.

Ice age‘as: Globalus ekonomikos sulėtėjimas prasideda 2007 ir ‚išauga‘ 2008. Tuo pačiu metu žaliavinės naftos tiekimas ženkliai išauga. Naftos kaina kone ištirpsta pasiekdama 22$ už barelį kainos lygį.

(Infliacija neįskaičiuota)



(galime įvertinti infliacijos nuveiktą darbą)



Vienas pagrindinių veiksnių, darančių įtaką naftos kainai yra OPEC (naftą eksportuojančių šalių organizacija) ministrų nutarimai dėl naftos išgavimo kvotų kartelyje didinimo/mažinimo. Nors OPEC kvotų keisti kol kas nesirengia ir vyrauja nuomonė, kad OPEC bandys apginti ~60$ už barelį lygi, kad ir vilkas sotus būtų ir avys sveikos liktų: t.y. tenkintų tiek savo interesus, tiek vartojančiųjų šalių, tačiau kainai krentant toliau (>10-15%) gali būti imtąsi kvotų mažinimo strategijos, kad būtų stabilizuota naftos kaina.

(OPEC narės)



(Matome šalių naftos eksportą bareliais per dieną)



Pagal Global Insight Inc., naftos kainos kritimas 10$ už barelį, kelia bvp ~0.2%. Dar didesnę įtaką naftos kainos kritimas turės infliacijai – be abejo, investoujantiems nefiksuoto pajamingumo įrankiais, tai yra teigiama žinia, nes Fed‘ui nepakėlus bazinės palūkanų normos, o gal net ją ir sumažinus (?), tokių investicijų patrauklumas tik išaugs. (Y)

Pabaigai, legendinis Texaso naftos magnatas T. Boone Pickens vis dėlto nekeičia savo prognozių dėl 80$ už barelį ir teigia: „Mūsų prognozė buvo beveik pasiekta, tik nesitikėjome, kad kaina pradės kristi taip greit. Dabar turi įvykti nebent svarūs geopolitiniai poslinkiai, kad mes jau šiais metais (2007) pasiektume 80$, tačiau kitais metais ir „normaliomis sąlygomis“ išvysime 80$.

Naudotąsi Business week, Stanley Redd‘o, Chris Palmeri‘o informacija, straipsniais.
Paruošė T. Pilkauskas, 3a, (zhaltis)

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Komentarai



2006 09 24 20:44     #198
Liuks straipsnelis! Aciu. Bet keistas sutapimas: pats si savaitgali "Verslo klasej" 2005m. lapkr. men perskaiciau panasu straipsni apie nafta ir kai ka pasizymejau savo dienorastyje (http://www.spekuliantai.lt/journal.php?m=page&p=357)
2006 09 24 21:34     #199
Manau reikia atkreipti demesi, kad naftos kainai isaugus iki tam tikro lygio atsiperka darzovinis kuras. Jei neuzdusim per ateinanciu 50 m. nuo naftos - turesim pereiti prie alternatyvu.
2006 09 24 22:34     #200
Puikus straipsnis! Daug aiskios informacijos, graziai isliustruotas. Be to manau kad tikrai laiku. Tiesa kaip neekonomistas turinio nedrystu vertinti, taciau smagu kad spekuliantai.lt gali pasigirti tokiu straipsniu ka nelabai rasi lietuvos dienrasciuose.:yes
2006 09 25 07:36     #204
Dėkui, gimnazijoje gavau užduotį parašyti str. šia tema, tai ir čia atsiunčiau. Malonu, kad radote naudingos informacijos. O dėl VK nžn - lietuviška literatūra nesinaudojau, tačiau straipsnyje info yra iš Business week, The Economist savaitraščių, tai ir VK berašydami galėjo užmest akį.
2006 09 25 08:03     #206
truputį druskos, nors gal nebūtinai "giliau" tai gilesnėse vandenyno vietose ar gilesni gręžiniai?
2006 09 26 19:52     #210
Jei artės naftininkų apokalipsė, viskas matysis naftos kainoje.
2006 09 28 21:20     #216
Saunuolis, Zalti! Labai informatyvus ir sklandziai isdestytas staripsnelis. Reikia tau i Alfa zurnalistus kaip nors patekt - aplenksi visus eksternu! Pagarba, Sekmes!
2006 09 29 21:34     #228
[quote] [b]Iš straipsnio:[/b] Nors OPEC kvotų keisti kol kas nesirengia ir vyrauja nuomonė, kad OPEC bandys apginti ~60$ už barelį lygi, kad ir vilkas sotus būtų ir avys sveikos liktų: t.y. tenkintų tiek savo interesus, tiek vartojančiųjų šalių, tačiau kainai krentant toliau (>10-15%) gali būti imtąsi kvotų mažinimo strategijos, kad būtų stabilizuota naftos kaina. [/quote] Atsimenu, kai prieš tris metus buvo kalbama, kad tas "aukso viduriukas" yra 30$ už barelį. Tuomet buvo kalbama, kad naftos kainai viršijus šią ribą, OPEC'as žada didinti kvotas... Andrius_S
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