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Dovre Insight: Sleepless in Teheran

Spekuliantai.lt | 2012-02-13 | Kitos | perskaitė: 632
Raktiniai žodžiai: Rinkos
Dovre Insight: Sleepless in Teheran Dovre Insight: Sleepless in Teheran

 Since 2008, the world has been increasingly more chaotic. Political analysis as well as economical analysis is required before investment decisions are to be made.

The most important geopolitical risk factor right now is Iran. The danger is that oil prices might shoot through the roof on the escalating tensions over its nuclear program. It would be good news for oil related stocks in the short term but this could be fatal to a fragile world economy.

The Iranian mullahs hardly sleep at night. The regime's main ally Syria is reeling. Meanwhile, the recent escalation of sanctions is about to take a stranglehold on the economy. The value of the Iranian currency has halved in the winter and even larger problems can be expected.

Strangelhold

Last week the U.S. Senate decided to throw Iran out of the international payment system SWIFT. When done the country will not longer be able to implement electronic payment transactions. This can shut down a big part of international trade.

With an economy on the brink of collapse it is hoped that the Iranian regime will soon surrender and give up its nuclear program. The danger is that the leaders can do something desperate before then. Whatever it will be it is unlikely that the government will back down before the parliamentary elections on 2 March. The leaders want to appear strong until then.

Iran is not the only risk factor. The remaining risk factors include Iraq, where tensions between different ethnic groups have increased after the American withdrawal.The danger is that this can result in a civil war like the one in the 80's in Lebanon. The unstable and unpredictable nuclear powers Pakistan and North Korea are also potential "black swans".

Oil prices

How concerned should we be over the geopolitical picture? Not too much. Normally, the geopolitical risks is overvalued in the stock market. As a rule, most things will be okay.

We are still on the path of least resistance in the oil price which is up, at least until the Iranian parliamentary elections. The gradual phasing in of EU's oil embargo supports this view.

Dovre favorites

This week we include Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge in the Dovre portfolio. With a 2012 P/E of 7 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.7, it is easy to like it.

The savings bank sector is attractive in general. The pricing is low, while the pressure on interest margins has peaked. This is evident by the fact that no bank has reported interest rate cuts after Norges Bank lowered its key rate by 0.5 percentage points in December.

Dovre favorites as of now also include EMGS, Sevan Marine and Intex Resources.

Dovre-portfolio:

· Morpol
· Sevan Marine
· EMGS
· Intex Resources
· Telenor
· Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge

In: Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge
Out: BW Offshore

 

 

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