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Vakar vykusios ECB/Trichet konferencijos pagrindinės mintys:

Thomson Financial


-ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the second and third quarters of this year would be 'particularly weak'.

-Some of the information on the downside risks which were identified previously by the ECB now suggest 'very very clearly' the materialization of these risks to economic growth, he said.

-He said the materialization of some of these risks 'was not a surprise' for the ECB.

-He said the weaker growth in the second quarter was a 'technical correction' of the extraordinary robust growth in the first quarter, particularly in some countries like Germany.

-Other factors that are playing their role in these risks are, 'in particular but not exclusively', the slowing down at a global level and the dampening effect of the 'very very high level of oil and commodity' prices. He said he will provide more details on these aspects next month.

-He said the ECB is 'totally pragmatic' and 'humble' in the face of facts and figures regarding the state of the economy.

-He said the economic 'trough' identified one month ago was for 'mid-year, (in the) second and third quarters', adding that all the information the ECB has since last month 'are confirming that we have indications that we are already on this period' of trough.

-He said the ECB has 'already priced in' the aspect of slower growth, with a trough in the second and third quarters, and will have to see 'exactly what will happen' after that. This is one of the elements that has to be incorporated in the ECB's scenario analysis, he added.

-He said considerable changes in relative prices which have been observed do not only have a drain on the resources of the euro area and of consumer economies but also changes the 'overall potential of those economies'.

-He said a change of relative prices will have a big impact on the productive sector itself and its capacity to produce.


-The ECB's current monetary policy stance contributes to achieving its price stability objective, he said.

-'I would say on top of that, we have no bias. As you know we are never pre-committed' when it comes to interest rates in the region and will always do 'what we judge (as) appropriate to deliver price stability and be credible in the delivery of price stability'.

--He said all the information that has become available since the ECB meeting last month has 'underpinned the reasoning behind our decision' to increase interest rates in July.

-He said 'all the observations we could make' on inflation risks 'were justifying fully what we have been doing', adding that with regards to inflation expectations, 'all the information we have is confirming that we were right to do what what we have been doing'.


-The ECB has a 'very clear message' for a number of months now, adding: 'I would repeat very solemnly that we consider it is absolutely essential that we have in this domain no second round (inflation) effects.'


-He said the the best way to describe the prices of oil and food are that they are 'high and volatile'.

-He said the prices had peaked and then came down but it is very difficult to predict the future prices of commodities.


-He said the ECB has only 'one needle in our compass: the needle is price stability'.

'We take all information that are coming as contributing to indicate what is the situation of that needle in our compass,' he said.

-'We don't compare two needles', one being price stability and the other being the activity' of the economy.

-He said the ECB has the same analysis as it had before, and that 'you should not overestimate any changes that you might have considered. We are in a universe where we see all the risks that I have listed. They are exactly the kind of risks that we have listed before.'

-He said the increases in prices of commodities is creating a 'pipeline effect in a number of other prices', which he said is something that is 'ongoing and creates more risks'.


-He said the survey, due to be published by the ECB on Friday, shows that there has been 'somewhat lower net tightening of credit standards for loans to household for house purchases but somewhat increased net tightening for consumer credit and other lending for households, albeit for a lower level.'

-'We have all taken into account a somewhat lower net tightening of credit standards for loans to enterprises that had been observed in the first quarter, but these are not big changes,' he said.

-'There is tightening of credit according to the bank lending survey. I would say more or less the same level of tightening but perhaps a little bit less net tightening,' he said.

-He said all in all, because of the dynamism of loans to non-financial entities, 'we have a level of loan to private sector which is still quite dynamic'.


-He said the decisions taken by the ECB together with the U.S. Federal Reserve and with the Bank of Switzerland are 'proof of Transatlantic cooperation which have been welcomed by the markets'.

-'We will continue to follow the situation very carefully', he said, referring to the money-market conditions.

-He said since the very beginning of the financial market crisis, the ECB had adopted the view that it has a responsibility to contribute to the smooth functioning of money market.

-He said tensions 'that we're seeing and are still seeing on both sides of the Atlantic' were originating from the money market.
Common sense is not very common
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Dar reikia tokių FED pasisakymų ir pildyti nuolatos...
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Thomson Financial
Federal Reserve board chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the Fed should be able to maintain its low federal funds target rate for some time, as the recent drop in commodity prices coupled with reduced demand for resources due to the economic downturn should reduce the threat of inflation.

'If not reversed, these developments, together with a pace of growth that is likely to fall short of potential for a time, should lead inflation to moderate later this year and next year,' Bernanke said on Friday in prepared remarks before the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The Fed for the last several months has had to tread carefully to ensure its rate cuts, meant to prime the economic pump, do not spark inflation, which continues to rise at a pace not seen for nearly two decades.

Bernanke acknowledged the slowing U.S. economy and rising inflation have combined to create 'one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory', something made all the more difficult because turmoil in the financial markets 'has not yet subsided'.

He added the Fed's decision to lower the fed funds rate to 2 percent from 5.25 percent over the last year was 'conditioned on our expectation that the prices of oil and other commodities would ultimately stabilize', and said this ongoing expectation has allowed the Fed to keep the fed funds rate low 'despite an increase in inflationary pressures'.

But while he called recent commodity price declines 'encouraging', he said the inflation outlook is still 'highly uncertain' and reiterated the Fed would 'continue to monitor inflation and inflation expectations closely'.

'The FOMC is committed to achieving medium-term price stability and will act as necessary to attain that objective,' he said.

The bulk of Bernanke's remarks dealt with the need to strengthen the financial regulatory structure to reduce the chances of building up systemic risk in the markets in the future. He again defended the Fed's effort earlier this year to facilitate the sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan Chase but said that move created 'consequences that must be addressed'.

'In particular, if no countervailing actions are taken, what would be perceived as an implicit expansion of the safety net could exacerbate the problem of 'too big to fail', possibly resulting in excessive risk-taking and yet greater systemic risk in the future,' he said.

Bernanke suggested several steps that could be taken to deal with the so-called moral hazard problem, such as work the Fed is already doing to encourage the management of liquidity risk among financial institutions. He said the Fed is also working to help automate and standardize the process of clearing and settling trades in credit default swaps.

Bernanke also urged Congress once again to consider granting regulators new authority to help manage the failure of financial institutions that play such a large role in the market that their failure could cause broader damage if not handled properly.

'In the Bear Stearns case, the government's response was severely complicated by the lack of a clear statutory framework for dealing with such a situation,' he said. 'As I have suggested on other occasions, the Congress may wish to consider whether such a framework should be set up for a defined set of non-bank institutions.'

'A statutory resolution regime for non-banks, besides reducing uncertainty, would also limit moral hazard by allowing the government to resolve failing firms in a way that is orderly but also wipes out equity holders and haircuts some creditors, analogous to what happens when a commercial bank fails,' he added.

Bernanke also said some consideration should be given to new regulatory authorities to review system-wide risks and not just the risks faced by a single firm, or a full review of the financial market that covers all market participants.

He said a full-scale review could be justified because 'activities or risk-taking not permitted to regulated institutions have a way of migrating to other financial firms or markets'.

But, he urged caution in creating this sort of system, as it would probably be costly and could be 'technically demanding'.
Common sense is not very common

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