Market crash 2007

BAZ | 2007-03-20 17:50 | perskaitė: 1001
Market crash 2007 20/03/07 Swedbank готов к балтийскому краху 6/03/07 Too much work?


Swedbank готов к балтийскому краху


Too much work?

New cut-off time for the East Capital Baltic Fund

We would like to remind you that the cut-off time for the East Capital Baltic Fund will be moved to 1 pm CET starting Monday 5 March 2007. Thus, notification of a transaction in the fund must reach the Fund Manager by 1 pm CET in order to be processed at the same day’s fund unit value. Otherwise, it will be processed at the next business day’s fund unit value.


Finnish YLE announced yesterday that scandinavian banks like Sampo, Nordea and others have problems with investors who wants to take their money back from funds. Too many people wants to do that, thats the way is growning big selling boom and banks are in trouble with money delivery

sry have not on english/russian dis news.

only estonian

and finnish YLE

Trigon funds strategics said that they expecting correction for a few weeks more. and normal will be 30-40% fall.


So 30 days ago i made this theme here. And long time waited correktion came to us. Its not like it was last year, its TOTAL PANIC, as one of my friends said on russian - TOTALNII PIZDEC. Dont panic, soon will be all ok.


Crazy attack from investors today - SEB didn work full day till 4 o clock, Hanza also had problems few hours, LHV only one who worked good - but not perfect, powertrader worked with some past time (displayed price 1,54, instead was 1,59 already). So some good opportunites was lost. Anyway market is still nervous. Buy at mornigng, sell same day later )


So at 29/01 i wrote about talks in Estonia - good correction is coming or may be crash? U saw it today, amazing? Its normal. Dont be very greedy, be realistic.

Crash or just a correction? Very interesting offcouse. Soon we will see.

Past days and today Aripaev wrotes that some famous people sold their shares (sportmens, bankirs etc) already in January. Also Aripaev wrotes last week that small investors started in january second half to sell their shares, but funds keep buying.

Now comments:

Hanzapank research analitic said - price can go down 2 days more. Funds needs more time like one day to start doing something.

Very populat man at lhv - stefan from Sweden says that foreign funds can start selling their shares.

Kristjan Lepik (, estonian trading guru): the prices of shares after today correction still very high. Index can go down for 30 - 40% more. Long-term investor must not buy shares at this moment, because he can bought soon at more cheapiest price.

Suprema Joakim Helenius said - it normal and very good, we waited it and this is not the end, some of firms must work years if they want to display such higly valued prices like today we have


Today some info about PE-s, what PE-s waiting market etc


Oh my god.

January grow at TSE was second in the world. At first place Vietnam - Bloomberg announced today

1. vietnam

2. tallinn

3. zagreb

4. ukrain

5. island

experts of hanza, suprema, lhv predicted same grow for all 2007 yearm but TSE did it in one month.

I dont know whatta f... really is going on market. Hmm very interesting what will be soon. Anyway it cant continue long.


Today the main economic newspaper Aripaev wrotes - the highest month grow up at TSE since august 1997.


So the most popular theme in Estonia for 3 weeks in a row is market crash 2007. Yes many prices are overwarmed, i agree, especiAlly at crazy TSE. Many rookies buying without analize, buying using market orders . Many gurus saying - watch market crash could come very soon :wink. Are they right or no? Who knows? Anyway we have strong debates.

And when we go down, vse also etc.

Am not so negative, market crash - no. Only good correction


2007 01 29 18:51     #8715
It's hard to find long term trend without correction.:wink The question,is how deep and for how long correction will be?
2007 01 29 18:57     #8717
I suppose that VSE correction will be more deeply than TSE.
2007 01 29 19:06     #8718
Mario, what makes you think so? Today's TSE reminds me VSE September 2005, while VSE and RSE both are growing more moderately.
2007 01 29 19:10     #8719
at 17/01 was news that Estonia is trading at 19.1x PE 2007E, Latvia at 21.7x, and Lithuania at 21.8x
2007 01 29 19:36     #8720
Can you paste the link? What do you mean 2007E - expected? Very few companies anounced 2007 forecasts so far.
2007 01 29 19:45     #8721
Shmugel, Estonians are less panic than Lithuanians!
2007 01 29 20:00     #8722
shmugel it was at lhv news, look 17/01m first statement
2007 01 29 20:01     #8723
The valuation cannot be taken as attractive: Estonia is trading at 19.1x PE 2007E, Latvia at 21.7x, and Lithuania at 21.8x. Q4 results will determine the future direction; however, expectations are set very high.
2007 01 29 20:20     #8725
It would be interesting to find out how Erki is calculating this, how stocks are weighted. Anyway, P/E is not the only factor determining market movement or making stock [not]attractive.
2007 01 29 20:23     #8726
Shmugel check weekly rsi for omxt, omxv and omxr. The highest rsi has omxt...
2007 01 29 20:33     #8729
Lithuanian average P/E is high because of several stocks from energy sector - LEN, RST, VST, LEL etc., which have P/E much over 20; the rest of the shares - Banks, Alcohol, Dairy's have moderate P/Es. I aggree with BAZ, VSE growth was not so rapid as TSE (look at TKM, TAL,..), so in my opinion correction here should not be as sharp as TSE's.
2007 01 29 20:35     #8730
pienas ant virykles? koks pienas? pala, o prie ko tas RSI dabar?
2007 01 29 20:59     #8731
Market crash 2007 in Lt market should start no earlier 16-th of February. Today we can see (OMXV) that many rookies are selling bank shares...
2007 01 29 21:04     #8732
langel, o gal nuo kovo 11 ?
2007 01 29 21:07     #8733
MPB - rookie of the year
2007 01 31 20:22     #8782
three cheers for TSE
2007 01 31 20:38     #8783
What about Aripaev IPO in TSE?
2007 01 31 22:01     #8784
Mario why it must be? about what u talking? or u loughing?) may be eesti ekspress group u mean? The owner of ee group said they are not ready to do this still. but i think it can be real this year

93 komentarai

2007 02 01 09:00     #8789
i can't answer a question to myself - where people, trading through hsa, yhi, sup and some others, get so much money they buy everything at any price for example i know that if FNS bought smthng, it would sell smthng too but i haven't seen these companies selling away anything yet. maybe these brokers represent big investors from other countries?
2007 02 01 18:26     #8800
chamas offcourse. for example i know that polish funds very agressivly started to trade at tse in january
2007 02 01 19:56     #8802
BAZ, Sorry, eesti express group. Can this IPO be interesting, what do You think?
2007 02 01 21:45     #8805
offcourse, not so interesting like oeg, but now is very good time to do ipo.
2007 02 02 07:05     #8809
Yes, of course, anyway, we must remember that trend MUST be our friend.
2007 02 02 10:33     #8818
For comparison some data taken from bloomberg and some other source else(that I don't remember now): On June 20,2006, PE median of VSE just reached 12. At the beginning of the 2006 it equaled 18, and on 2005 was above 20. At the end of June 2006 was one opinion that VSE was valued fairly, in comparisson with Central Europe. According to bloomerg PE of Polish equaled 11, Hungary 10, Czech 24, Russian 7. PE of the biggest 30 enterprises of CRE (blue chips) was 12.
2007 02 02 10:36     #8819
All data above is taken from june 2006 *
2007 02 09 08:32     #8969
Yep, you were walking on a too thin ice..
2007 02 10 07:57     #8982
We agree that market was still nervous on Friday in all Baltic countries. BAZ, maybe better results we will achieve if... buy at morning, sell three hours later
2007 02 28 20:33     #9266
In OMXV we can see two day panic (in T and R three times longer), but we hope for the best tomorrow, because today MPB started to buy UKB shares...
2007 03 04 16:17     #9331
BAZ, Could you give us the link to the YLE, Sampo and Nordea statements or article you refer to? Thanks
2007 03 04 16:49     #9332
Could you please give us a source of this informtion.
2007 03 04 17:41     #9333
Selling already started.We can see that by numbers of deals of SUPREMA,East capital via the latter selling of. The wave of selling is just starting to come and the worst(the best)are just ahead..
2007 03 04 17:50     #9334
for dis moment its only on estonian language i think tomorrow it will be for example on english at BBN or somewhere else.
2007 03 04 18:00     #9335 dis is the source
2007 03 04 18:02     #9336
2007 03 04 20:45     #9337
The is not bullish for the next months either. :con They say carry trade being wraped up. Thus killing liquidity. Even if fundamentals are strong, they are helpless agains money being dried up. Well they have a strong point here...
2007 03 05 07:18     #9338
thank you!!
2007 03 06 22:04     #9421
I noticed this one as well. really good one. Can't cope with selling orders.
2007 03 20 18:01     #9603
BAZ, maybe some coments in english? Russian language isn't my strong side
2007 03 20 18:13     #9604
По моему не так все страшно, как пишет пресса, им бы лишний раз только воду помутить.
2007 03 20 19:50     #9605
Hmm.. Interesting article. I have one question: lets say it will happen... Now, what will happen with the Estonian or Latvian shares which are traded in EUR? Will they experience depreciation or vice versa? Do we have any practise sometime somewhere?
2007 03 20 20:23     #9608
imo, delfi "mutit vodu". skaitet ten komentarus? pagal ju lygi as ta straisni "deciau". kai kurie "zurnalistai" saito reitingus kelia tokiais pranesimais, ypac kai nieko konkretaus neraso
2007 03 20 20:38     #9609
man tai irgi čia žurnalistinis burbulas, nes verčia iš kažkokio švediško straipsnio, o ten matyt klausė Swedbanko šefo "ar yra numatyti saugikliai jei Baltijos šalyse finansų krizė", tas pasakė "kad jo - analizuojam visus įmanomus scenarijus" (ką daugiau bankas gali pasakyt???), o žurnaliztai parašo, kad ruošiasi juodžiausiam scenarijui va ka gauni sumaises ziopla zurnaliuga su internetu - finansu krizę
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