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Doleriui pranašauja atsistatydinimą

spekuliantai.lt | 2007-11-21 | Rinkos aktualijos | perskaitė: 7172
Doleriui pranašauja atsistatydinimą Virš amerikietiškos valiutos ir toliau tirštėja debesys.

Virš amerikietiškos valiutos ir toliau tirštėja debesys. Dolerio likimas tapo svarbiausia tema, aptarinėjama Naftą eksportuojančių valstybių organizacijos (OPEC) susitikimo metu Saudo Arabijos sostinėje Rijade. Dolerio kurso kritimas jau sukėlė rekordinį naftos kainos augimą. Nepaliaujamas juodojo aukso brangimas kelia vis didesnę grėsmę daugumos išsivysčiusių šalių ekonomikoms ir verčia jas reikalauti iš OPEC gavybos apimčių padidinimo, kad kainos taptų nors kiek mažesnės. Tuo tarpu kartelio dalyviai ir toliau reiškia nepasitenkinimą dėl dolerio kurso kritimo, dėl kurio mažėja naftos gamintojų ir eksportuotojų pajamos.

Paskutiniojo Naftą eksportuojančių valstybių organizacijos viršūnių susitikimo dalyviai taip ir nesugebėjo susitarti ar verta imtis kokių nors veiksmų dėl dolerio susilpnėjimo. Tuo tarpu susitikimo metu tapo visiškai aišku, jog kai kuriems kartelio dalyviams pasaulio naftos kainų „atrišimas“ nuo JAV dolerio taps bene svarbiausiu uždaviniu artimiausiu metu. Irano, Venesuelos ir Ekvadoro vadovai pareikalavo imtis priemonių, kad apsaugotų šalių-naftos gamintojų ekonomikas nuo griūties dėl JAV dolerio nuvertėjimo. Be to, Irano ir Venesuelos atstovai leido suprasti, kad padarys viską, kad pasaulinės naftos kainos nebebūtų nustatomos JAV valiuta. Mahmudas Ahmadinedžadas (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – Irano prezidentas) jau pavadino dolerį „nieko verta popieriaus skiautele“.

Tačiau, nepaisant Irano ir Venesuelos lyderių aktyvumo, susitikimo metu vykusi diskusija apie dolerio vaidmenį ir vietą pasaulinėje naftos rinkoje niekaip neatsispindėjo galutiniuose susitikimo dokumentuose. Šį faktą paaiškina pagrindinio OPEC nario – Saudo Arabijos pozicija. Saudo Arabijos atstovai pareiškė, kad Vakarai gaus iš gamintojų tokį naftos kiekį, kokio jiems prireiks.

Pagrindinio taikdario vaidmenyje atsidūrė Saudo Arabijos karalius Abdula, pareiškęs, jog naftos neverta versti „kaprizų ir ginčų įrankiu“. Karštakošis Venesuelos prezidentas Hugas Čavesas (Hugo Chavez) paskubėjo nesutikti su šiuo pareiškimu. Jo manymu, dabartinės aukštos juodojo aukso kainos – vos ne vienintelė kompensacija, kokią gali mokėti Vakarai už jų vykdomas neteisybes, nuo kurių kenčia likusi pasaulio dalis. Verta paminėti, kad tai toli gražu ne pirmas Venesuelos lyderio pasisakymas naftos ir dolerio tema. Pavyzdžiui, susitikimo išvakarėse jis pagrasino JAV, kad naftos kainos pakils ir iki 200 dolerių ribos, jeigu JAV ir toliau didins įtampa tarp Irano ir Venesuelos.

Reikėtų pažymėti, kad nepaisant to, kad vis nėra OPEC rezoliucijų dėl dolerio vaidmens pakeitimo pasaulinėje naftos prekyboje, aktyvus šios temos aptarimas tikrai neliks nepastebėtas nei valiutos nei naftos rinkose. Dėl pastarųjų įvykių iškyla logiškas klausimas: kokią reakciją gali sukelti Čaveso ir Ahmadinedžado „antidolerinės“ iniciatyvos ir ar jos sugebės galiausiai išstumti dolerį iš pasaulinės naftos rinkos?

Pagrindiniai pasaulio naftos vartotojai yra Amerika ir Kinija, ir abi valstybės yra suinteresuotos, kad naftos rinkos apyvarta vyktų būtent amerikietiška valiuta. Dėl JAV motyvacijos viskas yra aišku, Kinijos motyvacija taip pat gana paprastai paaiškinama. KLR yra vienas didžiausių pasaulyje dolerių aktyvų turėtojų ir yra mažiausiai suinteresuotas dolerio išstūmimu iš naftos rinkos. Jeigu dėl kokios nors priežasties taip atsitiktų, tai neišvengiamai sukeltų žymų dolerio kritimą, kuris sąlygos Kinijos dolerinių aktyvų atpigimą. Kitas ne mažiau svarbus momentas yra tas, kad JAV doleris objektyviai yra ne tik nacionalinė JAV valiuta, bet ir nusistovėjusi vieninga pasaulinių skaičiavimų valiuta. Didelę dabartinės dolerio vertės dalį sudaro tokios virtualios sąvokos kaip ekonominė (1/5 pasaulinio BVP), politinė ir karinė JAV galia. Nepaisant visų problemų, šios kategorijos iki šiol yra svarios. Tai leidžia tai pačiai Kinijai nepulti į paniką dėl dolerio kritimo ir savo investicijų į amerikietiškus aktyvus.

Kai toks svarus žaidėjas kaip Kinija ir toliau ramiai žaidžia doleriniame lauke, Irano ir Venesuelos išpuolius galima vertinti kaip mažai ką įtakojančią retoriką. Neabejotinai, ši retorika turi tam tikrų politinių priežasčių, tačiau jos sugebėjimas paveikti pasaulinės naftos rinkos pamatus yra arti nulio. Vienintele skambių Čaveso ir Ahmadinedžado pareiškimų pasekme gali tapti rinkos spekuliacijų augimas, tačiau tai nesukels jokių esminių pokyčių.


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2007 11 23 15:53     #2459
nebus jokio atstatydinimo , paistalai . Manau doleris dar kris iki 2 $ uz eura , aisku per metus kokius ar daugiau bet kad vaziuos i apciacia tai 100 %.
2007 11 25 15:40     #2461
apie Rusija pamirsot, ji taip pat siekia atsisakyti naftos prekybos uz $
2007 11 25 21:06     #2462
o kaip NORVEGIJA?
2007 12 07 14:47     #2543
NORVEGIJA ,manau geriausioje situacijoje strateginiai istekliai ,stabilumas ,kaip salies diduma aukstas....
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